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desertification in the Sudan |
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If we carry on as we are doing now, humanity will be decimated to a total of about 5 - 6 million people in about 50 years, living in small, widely scattered pockets of temperate marine climates, in primitive agrarian subsistence societies, ruled by local war lords, fighting over sources of food and water.
There will be no electricity as the transmission lines have collapsed, the turbines have worn out, no Internet, no computers, no TV, no radio, no refrigeration, and the satellites will send data that no one will hear or see. There will be no cars, no trucks, no airplanes, the factories long abandoned for lack of buyers, the refineries fallen apart, all fuel long used up.
We will transport by horse, cultivate with oxen, eat local home grown produce in season, light with candles, heat with wood and dung, grow flax for cloth, store things in clay pots, and defend our food, our water and our territory with bows and arrows, crossbows, swords and spears.
We are actively and massively creating this future by deforestation - which results in deserts. Our satellite images show that the deserts are growing, lakes are shrinking, rivers are dwindling and disappearing.
Lake Chad in 1972 and in 1987
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With deforestation we are forcing a global change from the original temperate terrestrial forest climate in which we and all Life as we know it evolved - to the daily and annual temperature extremes of a terrestrial desert climate.
Already we have seen brutally hot summers which killed thousands, and experienced brutally cold winters. In between, we have seen the extreme weather anomalies of widespread record floods, record long and severe droughts, record hurricanes in number and strength, late springs, snow in summer and early winters. And as it has done so far, it will only get worse, and worse, and worse every year. As our news confirm on a daily basis, we are well on our way to the extremes of a terrestrial desert climate.
The inevitable result is that our food crops cannot adapt to these conditions, and nothing can grow in the desert. Our food crops will fail, and there will be mass starvation. Also, in the deserts, there will be no water to speak of. Without forests to hold and store the water, there will be flash floods and massive erosion of top soil, particularly in mountainous areas.
This will happen regardless and totally independent of whether we reduce our carbon emissions or not. It will happen even if we were all driving electric cars, even if all our energy and electricity were generated by solar, wind, wave and geothermal forces, even if we had zero carbon emissions. This doesn't make one iota, one smidgen or one hoot of difference. None; zero; zilch; nada.
Deforestation is a totally different and separate issue altogether. Razing the forests forces a climate change from a stable terrestrial forest climate, to the climatic extremes of a terrestrial desert climate - even if we had zero carbon emissions. That this also releases immense amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, and eradicates the major terrestrial carbon sink (the oceans are the other) is incidental, although it massively adds to our carbon problem.
All our current, well meant, dedicated, even passionate efforts to reduce emissions are dwarfed, many million-fold, by deforestation. It is for all the world, as if our ship The Good Earth is awash in water to the gunwales, and we are desperately trying to bail water with a tin cup, while others are cutting huge holes in the hull with chainsaws. Truly. Actually. Realistically.
The only connection to global warming is that deforestation adds massively and permanently to the increase of carbon in our atmosphere by decay and the massive loss of carbon sinks. It just makes our carbon emission problem that much worse.
The areas where mass starvation (it has happened twice already in Ethiopia) will happen first and soonest are central Africa and Arabia, central India and China, the Amazon, the south-eastern and central US, and the prairie provinces in Canada.
On the other hand, and if we act decisively and quickly, we can still avoid this our future.
First, we need to stop deforestation right now, and switch the lumber companies to plantations of Giant Timber Bamboo on non-forested land, at a great increase in profits. Giant Timber Bamboo is a grass and can grow on marginal, even poor land, and yields 20 times more timber than tree forests would in the same area, in the same time. It is as if the holdings of forest companies were increased 20 fold, on easily accessible and easy to harvest land. And laminated bamboo (with unsurpassed and waterproof barnacle glue) can be used for all the wood products we need.
Then we need to reforest the Earth. This can be done easily, quickly and at no cost. None; zero; zilch; nada; not a penny.
First, we need to leave recently deforested areas alone; the forests will regenerate on their own. Then we need to re-forest areas which were once forested, including our cities (urban forests), and every available open space along highways, interchanges, railroad banks, roads, streets and lanes. Then we need to re-green the semi arid and arid lands, and the deserts of the Earth, which can be done easily and quickly - see
"Greening The Desert" in these pages.
Meanwhile, we need to switch our unsustainable agriculture to an extremely rich and abundant natural and supremely healthy agriculture, which also gets rid of much, and potentially all of our organic wastes. It is a simple system which has been practiced for several thousand years by the people of the Amazon and yields up to 800 times more product than our best current agricultural practices. It's foundation is called "Terra Preta Soil" which is created by a simple deep ditch compost system with the addition of charcoal - which doubles as a cheap and highly effective carbon sink for many millions of years - see "Terra Preta Farming" in these pages.
Here is how this can be done at no cost. Every able person on the Earth, leaving out only the very young and the very old, can collect a few seeds from local well adapted trees, fill a few empty coffee cans with earth, plant the seeds and water them with dirty dishwater, the best natural fertilizer there is (and in a pinch, with urine, which is very high in nitrogen). These can be grown, even on balconies, until large enough to transplant into their permanent locations. Cost: zero; zilch; nada; not a penny.
Local municipalities can be easily encouraged to make every empty spot available for planting trees, as local officials are very sensitive to the wishes of the population, and particularly so, since this allows them to acquire a nice and highly re-electable "Green Halo" instantly. The "Green Halo" is also extremely attractive to local malls, strip malls, supermarkets, to public and private companies with parking lots, particularly since treed parking lots will offer much desired shade and relief from the heat in summer, and some protection from the rain. They also look very attractive. They also purify the air. They also purify water. They also absorb much water now going into the storm sewers. They also temper the local climate.
The most effective way to make this happen on the world wide scale which is required would be to enlist the support of the religions, which need to declare the forest sacred, and make it the sacred duty of every person on the Earth to plant and maintain a grove of trees - because trees absorb the waste of our breath and return the free oxygen, our very breath of Life, without which we would die in 4 minutes. They also store and manage water, temper climates, purify the air and the water, and provide food, fodder, shelter, and many other amenities.
The bottom line is that we, and all Life on the Earth evolved in a terrestrial forest climate, that we are razing our forests on a massive scale, and thus are forcing a shift to a terrestrial desert climate. And none of us, and all other plant and animal Life, can survive the extremes of a terrestrial desert climate.
Finally, deforestation has been recognized by the 2,500 Earth scientists who have hammered out the Kyoto Accord, as one of the two factors driving global warming and climate change. The other is, of course, excess carbon emissions.
Of the 8 Priorities established by the Kyoto Accord, stopping deforestation, reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is item #2, and the easiest, the cheapest and the most effective method to end climate change and global warming. The first is increasing energy efficiency, and the third is switching to a sustainable agriculture. New sources of carbon free energy are priority #4.
It is not until item # 6 and #7 that limiting and reduction of carbon emissions is addressed. And for some unfathomable reason, we have chosen the most difficult, the most disruptive, the most expensive, the most inefficient and the most hopeless method to reduce the excess carbon in our atmosphere, while totally ignoring the cheapest, the quickest and the most effective way.
After all, there will be half again as many people on the Earth as there are now - another 3 billion - by mid century, and all need food, shelter, clothing, bedding, furnishings, tools and implements, at a minimum. And all this requires energy. Meanwhile, the people of China, India, Russia and many other developing nations are finally able to fulfil their dreams of owning a car, a fridge, a TV, a washing machine, a telephone, a stereo, even a computer, and many other modern amenities. This will swamp anything we are doing now 3 billion fold.
However, in the same period, and if we start now, in 40 years we can have, if we so wish, immense forests capable of absorbing much, if not all of the excess carbon emissions generated now and in our future.
We will have a future with forests; and then we will have the time and the resources to switch to carbon free and indefinitely renewable sources of energy.
It is up to us - whether we have a future, or not.
A Guide to Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) - http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/tg/guide_frame.jsp?rd=LU&ds=1
Deforestation: Tropical Forests in Decline - http://www.rcfa-cfan.org/info.tree.html
The long-term impact of global deforestation on climate - http://www.activeremedy.org.uk/pages/files/other/deforestation_and_climate.pdf
Global Deforestation Overestimated - http://www.scidev.net/News/index.cfm?fuseaction=readnews&itemid=257&language=1
World Population - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopgraph.php
544 New Coal Fired Power Plants Planned in China - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4330469.stm
hunting elephant, buffalo, antelope and giraffe in the Sahara - http://www.transafrica.biz/en/cou_niger_en.htm
Rescuing a Planet Under Stress - Earth Policy Institute - http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/books/pb2/pb2_table_of_contents
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