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Scientists: Monster hurricanes could hit U.S

and it's only getting worse

Unfortunately, and as the following article shows, my predictions are right on track. And as much as I hate to say this, we will have monster hurricanes.

The dynamics of our increasingly violent climates are now clear and indisputable - as clear as they were to me in 1985, when I first warned about this (see ON THE RECORD in these pages). But no one would listen then, of course. Worse - it will get much worse, and very rapidly so. Fortunately, we can also fix this - and very quickly, cheaply and effectively, just by re-foresting the continents. This may sound simplistic, but is far from simplistic. To whit:

The Earth's forests were the foundation of our planetary climate (see "FORESTS - FOUNDATION OF OUR BIOSPHERE, in these pages). What is not yet realized by our scientists are the many vitally important functions the Earth's forests had performed.

1) They generated 75% of the free oxygen content of our atmosphere, and with this, also much of the ozone of the Earth's ozone shield. They also absorbed most of the carbon dioxide produced on the Earth.

2) They held, 'husbanded' and managed vast amounts of water on the continents by storing it and releasing it slowly. And the "thermal inertia" of the water held in forests tempered local climates, just as the oceans temper coastal climates.

3) Their shade cooled down the heat of the day, and warmed the cold of night - and likewise tempered the seasonal extremes of our summers and winters.

The 80% eradication of the Earth's forests from their original historic extent has brought the following consequences:

1) A massive reduction in the capacity of the Earth to store and sequester carbon dioxide; hence the "greenhouse effect". Consequently, the Earth is now warmer, which also provides more energy for storms and hurricanes.
A massive reduction in the capacity of the Earth to generate free oxygen, and hence ozone. This is a massive contribution to the ever growing "ozone holes", and the sole cause of the substantial thinning of the ozone shield over the mid-latitudes - resulting in a greater influx of ultra violet radiation - which now delivers more and higher solar energy to the Earth, heating up the Earth further, thus providing more energy for storms and hurricanes. This is the as yet unrecognized "ultra violet effect".

2) A massive reduction of stored water upon the continents, with a consequent massive loss of the tempering effect of water upon continental climates. This results in the ever increasing climatic extremes as continental climates are now driven towards the diurnal temperature extremes of the desert, resulting in the as yet unrecognized climatic consequences of the "desertification effect".

This also substantially increases the temperature differentials between the 'heated' day side, and the 'cooled' night side of our planet - which causes far greater turbulence in the movement of the air of our atmosphere - and further intensifies the strength of storms and hurricanes. This is the "planetary diurnal effect", also as yet unrecognized. See CLIMATE DYNAMICS in these pages.

3) A massive loss of vast shaded areas - both of the soil and air - on the continents, and its attendant loss of this tempering effect upon continental climates. This further reinforces the above consequences.

As you can see, it is far from simplistic, and we've haven't even gotten into the complexities of the "albedo effect" of large tracts of continental forests. And only one of these various consequences of the massive deforestation of the continents - the desertification of the land - is currently recognized by science. The climatic effect of desertification remains unrecognized.

For all of these reasons, our climates will become progressively more extreme, as these mutually reinforcing dynamics intensify and escalate the climatic extremes we are experiencing now. What we will see in the near future, for instance, are vast conflagrations which will decimate the remaining shreds of the world's forests, and basically terminate the biosphere in which we have evolved.

Original Article:

More Powerful Hurricanes Could Blast East Coast

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Weather researchers think the evidence is now clear: A major shift in the climate has taken place that has brought about an increase in major hurricanes. The period of heightened activity could last for decades, and unleash a catastrophic storm on the United States, according to meteorologists.

Since the climate shift began six years ago, when the Atlantic Ocean began looking like a hurricane freeway, the number of hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic basin has doubled, said scientists at the U.S. Hurricane Research Division. The number of major hurricanes, which produce winds in excess of 110 miles an hour, has also increased during the period by 250 percent, they said.

The increased activity will continue for the next ten to 40 years, which could mean trouble for the United States. "Most seasons we are going to get a hurricane hit the U.S. and probably more than half the time we will have a major hurricane hitting the U.S. as well," said hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea.

Already hurricanes have increased in number and intensity. Since 1995,the Caribbean has been pounded by deadly storms like Mitch, Lenny, Marilyn, Luis and Georges. Spared the brunt of the storms, the United States has simply been lucky so far, the scientists warned. "With the increased number, if it starts pounding the U.S., as we feel like it is going to happen, there's bound to be a major city impacted and we could be talking about a real disaster of epic proportions on our hands," said hurricane meteorologist Stanly Goldenberg.

A hurricane causing $50 billion in damage and hundreds to thousands of deaths is quite possible in the next ten or 20 years, according to Landsea. "I think at this point the U.S. is so developed and there's so many people along the coast that just about anywhere is a major disaster ready to happen."

Scientists say the Earth's climate goes through cycles, but they don't know why. Right now, Atlantic water temperatures are slightly warmer than usual, by just half a degree Fahrenheit. And in general, there is less wind sheer. The current conditions resemble those in 1900 when Galveston, Texas, was nearly obliterated; And the time between the 1920s and 1960s when hurricanes repeatedly slammed into Florida and the disastrous Yankee Clipper hit New York.

The period from 1965 to 1995 saw opposite conditions, cooler water and more wind sheer, neither of which fosters hurricane development. Times have changed. From Florida to New England, everywhere along the East Coast is now at increased risk of a major hurricane, the scientists said. [Source: CNN News July 19. 2001].

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