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A Vibrant Biosphere
We can have a vibrantly healthy biosphere in about ten years, simultaneously eliminate the "greenhouse effect", restore beautifully stable climates, and all this at ridiculously low cost. All we need to do is to stop cutting down the forests of this Earth and plant every bare spot with something green. |
The reason is very, very simple. The Earth's forests - and not the oceans - generate about 75% of the free oxygen in our atmosphere. And we are eradicating the Earth's forests on a massive scale. Besides sharply reducing the oxygen content of our atmosphere - this is already happening, see OXYGEN DECLINE - this also results in less ozone (no oxygen, no ozone - it's that simple) in our atmosphere, with the inevitable result of increasing hard UVB radiation, which will wipe out the remaining vegetation. End of our aerobic biosphere - and of all oxygen breathing Life, including our kind and selves. This process is already well underway.
The date of the collapse of our planetary biosphere can now be calculated.
It is very, very simple. When the increasing Ultra Violet radiation from our Sun exceeds the UVB tolerance limit of vegetation, it will begin to burn away the vegetation of the Earth - both marine and land-based. The consequences will be catastrophic.
All of the free oxygen in our planetary atmosphere - our breath of life - is produced by plant life, either marine or terrestrial, and so is our food, either directly, as in all grains, fruit, vegetables, tubers and nuts, or indirectly via meat raised on grass and grains. When the plant life of the Earth, and the phytoplankton of the seas is burned away by UVB radiation, there will be no free oxygen to speak of, and no food.
This spells the end for all oxygen-breathing organisms on the Earth - be this on the continents, or in the oceans - and only primitive fermenting organisms will survive in deep UVB sheltered places, along with the chemo-synthesizing organisms in the abysmal depths of the oceans. At this point, our planetary biosphere will collapse to an oxygen-less, and all but life-less desert planet.
The hair-raising truth is that this process is already well underway. To illustrate:
conceptual diagram of the current dynamics of our biosphere
As this diagram shows, the decimation of susceptible nascent organisms by increased UVB radiation began in 1990 - fully 7 years ago.
Most of us have heard about the puzzling world-wide decimation of many species of frogs and salamanders over the last decade - even in remote and pristine environments, while other amphibian species are unaffected or even thrive. This puzzling conundrum was resolved in 1995, when it was discovered that the increase in surface level UVB radiation killed the eggs of those species which leave their egg clusters to incubate at the surface of warm pond waters. Other species, whose eggs incubate in UVB protected niches of their environment remain unaffected (see, "The Puzzle of Declining Amphibian Populations"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, April 1995).
Not as well known is the recently discovered eradication of chironomid larvae. Chironomid larvae, and the adult fly, are a major platform in the marine food chain, particularly for salmon fry and similar species of commercial fish. First noted in 1990, the eradication of marine chironomid larvae due to increased UVB radiation was accidentally discovered by Max Bothwell of the National Hydrology Research Institute at the Environment Canada's Thompson River Research Station. Bothwell has spent the following 4 years checking and documenting his findings, and his discovery and conclusions were published in the U.S. research journal SCIENCE, July 1. 1994.
And UVB damage to crop seedlings is already a growing problem in agriculture around the world. Meanwhile, the incidence of skin cancer due to exposure to sunlight has risen dramatically, and it is not a question of whether or not we will get skin cancer anymore, but simply when. Worse, in the very near future we will see a sharp increase of skin cancer in our children. This will be far more devastating to our children because of the natural rapid growth of their growing phase. This is inevitable.
All very small, microscopic, and newly born (nascent) organisms - including the plankton of the seas, and the newly nascent, or budding growth of all plant life - are far more susceptible to UVB radiation than large mature organisms. While large mature organisms can tolerate the loss of thousands, even millions of cells to UVB radiation, the loss of even a few cells spells death for the few cells of very small, newly nascent, or budding organisms. What this means is that, sometime in the foreseeable future, steadily increasing UVB radiation will reach an intensity strong enough to burn away all the budding tender new growth of spring, and we will realize that (then) last year's spring has been "The Last Spring" on the Earth, period.
These and many other well documented facts show that the eradication of susceptible nascent organisms is already well underway. Moreover, plants are extremely susceptible to UVB radiation, since they are acutely oriented towards sunlight - the very source of their life-energy.
This puts us perilously close to the catastrophic collapse of our planetary biosphere. And the date of the collapse of our biosphere can now be calculated. All the factors are known. The rate of increase of UVB radiation is well documented, and the UVB tolerance limit of most plant life is also well known, or if not, can be readily established with very simple tests. It can be done in high school labs. The intersection of these two well known factors - the increase of UVB radiation, and the UVB tolerance limit of plant life - gives us the date of the beginning of the collapse of our planetary biosphere.
Since all plant life is the sole producer of the oxygen (hence ozone) in our atmosphere, and the ultimate source of all food - at this point, the dynamics will be irreversible, and our planetary biosphere will begin its rapid, catastrophic collapse to an oxygen-less, and all but lifeless desert planet. At the current rate, the total collapse of our biosphere will come in our time.
However, we still have a few years in which these dynamics can still be reversed, and before these current dynamics become permanently irreversible. The solution is simple, and effective. We need to 'green' the continents on a massive scale, and in the few years remaining to us while this is still possible - while green things will still grow - and before these dynamics become irreversible. Fortunately, this can be done very quickly, very easily, and very, very cheaply. To understand why this is our only remaining chance, we have to look at some fundamental dynamics of our biosphere.
It is well known that the plant life of the Earth generates all of the free oxygen (O2) of our planetary atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis. We also understand that ozone (O3) is a direct product of the free oxygen in our atmosphere. The dynamics are very simple and very straightforward. The more free oxygen there is in our atmosphere, the more ozone will be in our stratosphere. Conversely, the less O2 there is in our atmosphere, the less ozone will be in our stratosphere. The bottom line is simple; no oxygen - no ozone. So far, so good.
However, there is a major problem here. Until very recently, it was believed by all that marine photosynthesizing organism - single cells, phytoplankton and seaweed - generate by far the great bulk of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our atmosphere. This assumption was based on the fact that the oceans cover about 70% of the Earth's surface, whereas the continents cover only about 30% of the Earth's surface. This bland assumption - no one had ever checked the actual figures - turned out to be completely wrong.
In 1988 I had submitted the then heretical assertion that, due to at least 7 simple physical factors, terrestrial or land-based photosynthesis - and NOT marine photosynthesis - is by far the major generating factor of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our atmosphere. One of the major reasons for this is that the total photosynthetic surface of the needles and leaves of forests is about 700 times greater than the ground area covered by the forest. As it turned out, I was right.
Two years later, my assertion was confirmed by a major joint study by NASA, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, and the Lamont-Doherty Geological Survey. Based upon first principles, this study found that land-based photosynthesis absorbs about 3 billion tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide annually, whereas marine photosynthesis absorbs, at most, 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually (see "Murky Water"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, page 24, May 1990). In other words, terrestrial photosynthesis produces 75% of the free oxygen (and hence ozone) in our atmosphere.
This discovery was underscored by the 1993 discovery of the existence of vast plankton 'deserts' in the oceans, immense areas which are barren of all plankton due to the lack of suspended iron in the water. It was discovered that plankton exists only along the iron-rich margins of the continents, and in the down-current 'plumes' of islands. The extent of seaweed is even more restricted than plankton, since seaweed exists only within a narrow band along the shallow margins of the continents and islands. As these, and many ongoing studies have shown, marine photosynthesis generates only about 1/4 of the free oxygen, and hence ozone, in our atmosphere - and that continental photosynthesis generates fully 3/4 of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our planetary atmosphere!
And as we all know, we are eradicating the green cover of the continents on a massive scale. In the last decade alone, the world-wide loss of forests amounted to 338 million acres, equal to the total land area of Spain, France and Germany combined ("Global Forest Cover"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Nov. 1996, page 32). We are literally cutting off the 'branch' we live upon - the primary and most important source of our oxygen, and hence the ozone in our atmosphere - and on a massive, planetary scale. The alarm signals are blaring loud and clear.
1) The free oxygen (O2) level in our atmosphere is declining steadily.
Since 1990 there has been a steady decline of the free oxygen content of our atmosphere. And while this is to be fully expected as every molecule of carbon dioxide locks up two oxygen atoms, the O2 decline is greater than can be explained by the oxygen lock-up in carbon dioxide (see OXYGEN DECLINE in these pages). This is clear proof that the primary oxygen production of the Earth is declining.
2) The ozone level has been falling steadily and rapidly.
And while the much publicized CFSs are a strong contributing factor to the depletion of ozone at the north and south poles, this is not the only factor. The ozone levels have also been falling by 1/2% per year over the mid-latitudes for the last 30 years - for a total reduction of 15% to date. Since the CFCs are not the causative factor of the ozone depletion over the mid-latitudes, only the decimation of continental green cover can account for this. This conclusion is substantiated by two well documented facts:
2a) Ozone loss is greater over the southern hemisphere.
This is fully to be expected since most of the land mass of the Earth, and hence continental green cover, is located in the northern hemisphere. Consequently, the ozone loss will be greater over the southern hemisphere, and markedly less over the northern hemisphere.
2b) Ozone levels rise and fall seasonally.
This is also fully to be expected since the deciduous component of continental green cover ceases photosynthetic activity over the winter months in the mid-latitudes, when deciduous plants are leafless and dormant. That ozone levels rise (!) again after the winter months is solid proof that continental green cover performs a major role in the regeneration of ozone.
3) The recent advent and escalation of climatic extremes.
The escalation of climatic extremes is driven by 2 factors:
3a) The influx of higher energy.
UVB radiation carries higher energy than the visible spectrum of sunlight. Consequently, the sharp rise of incident UVB radiation over the last decade delivers more - and higher - energy to the surface of the Earth. This raises temperatures on the day-side of the Earth, causing greater temperature differentials between the day- and night-sides of the Earth. This, in turn, causes greater turbulence, and force, of air movement in our global atmosphere.
The higher incident energy of UVB also evaporates more water and lofts more moisture into into our atmosphere.
The consequences are more turbulent climates, and more turbulent weather of all kinds -
record storms, record rains, record snowfalls, floods, hail, heat, draught - all over the world. Consequently, climatic extremes around the world have now become an almost daily item in the news and, by now, all of us have personally experienced some of these extremes in one way or another.
Climatic extremes - as well as increased UVB radiation - severely interfere with the normal growth of continental green cover- including our crops - and adversely affect their survival. They will first wipe out all 'tender' plant life in borderline regions, and then, as their severity increases, climatic extremes will make all plant growth impossible everywhere. Record frosts and heat, record storms, floods, droughts - both in severity and frequency, along with mud slides, erosion and forest fires - we will see vast conflagrations in the very near future - will contribute massively to the rapid eradication of continental green cover.
3b) The decimation of continental forest cover.
As described in STABLE CLIMATES, the vast amounts of water stored by continental forest cover temper continental climates just as effectively as the water of the oceans temper marine climates. The loss of vast tracts of forests - and the vast amounts of water they hold - results in greater daily and summer-winter temperature fluctuations.
For example. In the treeless deserts, daily temperatures range from near freezing at night to 130 degrees F. in the shade during the day - for a daily temperature swing of almost 100 degrees F.
Under the dense vegetation of the tropical rain forests though, daily temperature swings go from a low of 75 degrees F. at night to 95 degrees F. during the day - for a mere 20 degree F. diurnal difference. And over the whole year, rain forest temperature fluctuates only by a miniscule 3 degrees F. This minimal fluctuation is entirely due to the thermal stability of the water stored by forests, or similar dense vegetation.
Due to their inter-locked nature, all of these factors reinforce each other in a rapidly escalating feed-back cycle. Our massive eradication of continental green cover has triggered powerful natural forces which now dramatically reinforce what we have done, and keep on doing. We have initiated a powerful vicious cycle which will gain strength and escalate rapidly with every new round.
From now on, we will see progressively colder winters, progressively hotter summers, progressively more violent climatic extremes, new record highs and record lows every year; progressively worse storms, floods and droughts, along with all manner of unseasonable anomalies. For instance. On April 6. 1997 the mid-western states experienced record flood levels from the spring melt of record snowfalls during the winter. Right on top of this, these states were hit by a late winter blizzard, and the affected areas faced record floods and a blizzard at the same time.(CNN news, April 6. 1997). These alarm signals are not only blaring loud and clear, but they also tell us that our biosphere is rapidly approaching crisis state.
Conceptual diagram of the current state of our biosphere
Since much of this is based upon new scientific discoveries, a few explanations are necessary. As described here in the article "Progressive Complexity", each phenomenon in this universe has its own specific 'Stratum of Stability' - all the way from protons and electrons, to stars and galaxies. So has our biosphere.
Over geological time, our planetary biosphere has flipped between two different climatic 'Strata of Stability' - Ice Ages, and 'Balmy Ages', commonly called 'Interglacial Periods' (see "What Drives Glacial Cycles?"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Jan. 1990).
One of the most familiar 'Strata of Stability' is that of fluid water. Water is fluid from 0 degrees C. to 100 degrees C. This is its fluid 'Stratum of Stability'. Below this, lies its solid Stratum of Stability (ice); and above lies its gaseous Stratum of Stability (water vapour). All of these Strata of Stability are energy determined, and the transitions from one to another are sudden and abrupt.
The two horizontal lines of this diagram represent the 'Stratum of Stability' of our biosphere, which is centered upon - but somewhat exceeds - the Stratum of Stability of fluid water.
(If the Earth were colder so that all water would be ice everywhere - or if it were hotter so that water would be vapour everywhere - our biosphere would not exist. Indeed, why our planet is not a 'white planet' - permanently covered by ice everywhere - is a major puzzle in science. That our planet has this tendency is evident in the many Ice Ages of the Earth. Obviously, there are Stability factors at work which keep our planet from being permanently covered in ice).
So, the two lines representing the upper and lower limits of the 'Stratum of Stability' of our biosphere are real. Our biosphere does have a Stratum of Stability, which is energy-determined, and very precisely so (see PROGRESSIVE COMPLEXITY in these pages).
Due to the 'chaos' component of our universe, the flux and flow of energy within any Stratum of Stability is chaotic - it never repeats itself - but it always remains within the 'box' of the upper and lower limits of its Stratum of Stability. This is why our weather is essentially unpredictable - it never repeats itself precisely - but it remains within 'normal' ranges, and does so for very long times. This is the historical aspect of our weather - normal fluctuations within a long-term stable climate.
This has changed dramatically over the last decade. Our weather has become progressively more extreme, and every year now brings new record highs and new record lows, along with all manner of climatic extremes and anomalies. These escalating climatic extremes show us that our biosphere has entered the "Threshold" phase to a phase-shift to another Stratum of Stability.
"Threshold Dynamics" were discovered by Ilya Prigogine, for which he received the 1977 Nobel Prize. Let us return to the familiar example of water to understand what "Threshold Dynamics" mean. When we heat water to boil it, it begins to simmer, and then roil and bubble violently just before it begins to turn into steam. The simmering, and then the roiling and bubbling of hot water are the "Threshold" dynamics of water preceding the phase-shift from fluid water to steam - from its fluid Stratum of Stability, to its gaseous Stratum of Stability. It is clear that this phase-shift is entirely energy-driven. Prigogine's "Threshold Dynamics" apply to all physical, chemical, biological, even social and psychological systems (see "Order Out Of Chaos"; Ilya Prigogine, 1984). And our biosphere is a physical, chemical and biological system.
Our biosphere is doing exactly the same thing; it is 'simmering' right now, and beginning to boil, so to speak. As in water approaching the boiling point, the normal fluctuations of our planetary climate are becoming progressively more violent, and have begun to exceed the normal and historic Stratum of Stability of our biosphere. Our planetary biosphere is indeed, and right now, in the "Threshold Phase" to a catastrophic phase-shift from its present Stratum of Stability to another.
And like all phase-shifts of matter, this phase-shift will be just as sudden and abrupt. It will come, practically, overnight.
Just how acute a crisis though is realized by only a few people. There are now 3 interlocked factors at work which will lead to the collapse of our biosphere. And none of these - and I repeat none of these - are the consequences of the 'greenhouse effect'.
1) The increasing influx of UVB radiation
It is a well documented fact that increasing UVB radiation has already begun (in 1990) to kill susceptible nascent organisms (frog and salamander eggs; chironomid larvae; crop seedlings - and I am certain we will find many more once we start looking for this). At the current rate of increase, increasing UVB radiation will begin to burn away the tender new growth of spring in the near future. Since all plant life is the one and only source of the oxygen in our atmosphere (our breath of life), and of our food, this marks the beginning of the catastrophic collapse of our biosphere to a barren, anoxic and all but lifeless planet. At this point, the dynamics now well underway will be irreversible. We will reach this point in our time.
2) Increasing climatic extremes
The climatic extremes we have experienced so far have been escalating rather rapidly, and will continue to do so. It will get progressively worse every year. Increasing climatic extremes make the growth and survival of plant life, including our crops, progressively more difficult, and finally, impossible. Again, this is the end of the oxygen and the food of our world. Some of our food crops have already begun to be severely affected by the current climatic extremes (the apple and strawberry industry of the U.S. Midwest, last year's grain crop in Western Canada, tender crops in California, and many more around the world). This will get worse year by year, until it will be impossible to grow anything.
3) The massive eradication of global forest cover
Since continental vegetation generates fully 3/4 of the oxygen - and hence, ozone - in our global atmosphere, our massive eradication of continental forests and other green cover is destroying the primary and most important source of oxygen and ozone of our planet.
And since the water normally stored by continental forests and similar dense green vegetation tempers continental climates just as effectively as oceans temper marine climates, our massive eradication of continental forests also destroys the primary and sole Stability factor of our continental climates.
To make it much worse, since all 3 factors are inextricably interlocked, they reinforce each other in a vicious spiral of powerfully escalating feedback forces. Things will get much worse every year - and very rapidly so.
continued NEXT
Based on my theories of "Change & Stability", and of "Progressive Complexity", I had predicted these advents in 1985. Of course, no one would listen at that time. Even in 1990, when I had repeated these predictions to the experts - and were at least considered this time around - they were dismissed again. Meanwhile though, my predictions have been proven absolutely correct in every respect. And, unless we do something about it, I have no other choice than to stand by my predictions.
For copies of official replies to my 1990 predictions,
see
ON THE RECORD in the climate section.
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